March 29, 2011
North East Report
The status of the NE area remains bad across the board, still not enough food, fuel, clothing etc. reaching the right places. Toll of dead and missing continues to climb every day and is now is excess of 28,000, with in excess of 150,000 still in temporary shelters in the worst affected regions. The only positive here is that the number of people in shelters has dropped from over 200,000 late last week. Much of the focus still on the nuclear reactor in Fukushima, refer “Nuclear Situation” below.
Tokyo Report
In regard to getting back to normal, Tokyo is still making quite good progress overall.
Food supplies are gradually returning to normal, but there are still blank spaces on many store shelves for items still out of stock which are not being replenished, I can only assume such items are from the NE area. Gasoline rationing is no longer a problem as anticipated earlier.
Blackouts
Main remaining problem is now “rolling blackouts” in some outer Tokyo areas and surrounding areas, these are required as the power company claims it can only supply 70% of regular demand. Areas subject to blackouts have been divided into 5 regions each comprising approx. 4 sub-regions. Blackout schedule is posted on Tepco’s (power company) website in Japanese.
These rolling blackouts interfere with factory production of a whole range of goods, and cannot be considered positive for the economy, refer also “Business Perspective” below. The area in which I live (near Tokyo Disneyland) was recognized as an “officially damaged area” late last week, and is therefore exempted from any further blackouts.
Drinking Water
The situation in regard to bottled drinking water supplies is still in panic mode, but at a lower level than it was last Friday. The larger PET bottles of bottled mineral water are still reserved exclusively for families with young children. Smaller bottles of mineral water are still around and available to all however.
Radioactivity readings at all fresh water treatment plants in the Tokyo area have fallen back well below levels considered safe for infants less than 1 year old as anticipated earlier, this is due to the very short half-life of the isotope in question – 8 days. Most families with young children are still accepting bottled water supplies in any case.
Note
In this case, the drop in readings was thankfully predictable due to being able to ascertain the half-life of the Iodine Isotope in question. It would be encouraging to see more readings on other isotope levels, refer “nuclear situation” report below.
Nuclear Situation
Power now connected to all reactors, attempts are underway to restart back-up systems, cooling systems etc. Progress is being made, but it is still slow progress, therefore still far from resolved and vigilance is still required. Another minor panic earlier this week when much higher levels of radioactive isotopes were detected in the sea just off the reactor location, and in the water which has accumulated on reactor floors.
The big unknown surrounding the nuclear situation is what radioactive isotopes are being leaked/emitted and how dangerous they are respectively. The following is from MIT’s “Nuclear Information Hub” website:
- Fission products remain inside the fuel under normal circumstances. When fuel resides in the core, it contains an amount of fission products proportional to the total energy it generated. When the fuel is depleted, it is moved to spent fuel pools and ultimately to dry cask storage, long-term repositories, or reprocessing facilities. At the Fukushima nuclear power plants, fuel inside the core (and possibly the spent fuel pools) is suspected to have likely been damaged. Because of this, some fission products, especially the gaseous products, have likely been released. We do not currently have enough information to know exactly which (or in what amount) fission products have been released.
Not all fission products are harmful. Although a few are gaseous, which enables them to travel long distances through the atmosphere, most are not highly mobile and will thus remain localized near the reactor site. Although nearly all fission products emit radiation, only some are potentially harmful to humans.
The chart below lists various important fission products along with their yields – the frequency at which they are produced from fission. For example, 6.3% of fission events (on average) will produce xenon-135 (after the highly unstable fission products rapidly decay). The half-life is a general time scale for how long the listed radioactive fission product will exist before decaying to a more stable fission product. Note that cesium and iodine, which were detected near the Fukushima site, are by far the most frequently occurring radioactive fission product elements.
| Yield 6.80% 6.30% 6.30% 6.10% 6.10% 5.80% 2.80% 2.30% 1.10% 0.70% 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% | Fission Product cesium-133/134* iodine-135 / xenon-135 zirconium-93 cesium-137 molybdenum-99 / technetium-99** strontium-90 iodine-131 promethium-147 samarium-149 iodine-129 samarium-151 ruthenium-106 krypton-85 palladium-107 | Half-life 2 years 7 hours 1.5 million years 30 years 200,000 years 30 years 8 days 3 years not radioactive 15 million years 90 years 1 year 11 years 7 million years |
Link to the website for those interested is here : http://mitnse.com/2011/03/
Link to an explanation of units of radioactivity measurement : http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/explained-radioactivity-0328.html
Author’s Notes
- It was the seventh isotope “iodione-131” that was involved in the fresh water panic last week.
- Clearly the level of danger is not merely linked to the half-life of each isotope, as it also matters a great deal how rapidly one receives a dose of radiation etc., however being aware of respective half-lives will assist in predicting how long a certain problem may be expected to linger.
- Local English language newspaper (The Japan Times) this morning details concerns about the effect of longer-life cesium-137 (30 year half life) on seafood, but correctly notes concerns about Iodine 131 will only be very short-term in nature.
- Plutonium found in Fukushima plant soil
Tokyo Electric Power Company says plutonium has been found in soil samples from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.
It says the radioactive substance appears to be related to the ongoing nuclear accident, but the level detected is the same as that found in other parts of Japan and does not pose a threat to human health.
TEPCO collected samples from 5 locations around the power plant over 2 days from March 21st and found 2 samples contaminated with plutonium.
Plutonium is a byproduct of the nuclear power generation process. At the number 3 reactor of the Fukushima plant, plutonium is an ingredient in mixed oxide, or MOX, fuel.
Radioactivity from plutonium can be shielded by a sheet of paper. But it can remain in lungs and other organs to cause long-term damages including cancer.
The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says the detected level is the same as that found in the environment and not health-threatening for workers who conducted the sampling, nor residents in surrounding areas.
The agency said it is awaiting the results of another survey by the Science Ministry outside of a 20-kilometer radius from the plant, as well as a further survey by TEPCO in the plant compound. Tuesday, March 29, 2011 02:20 +0900 (JST)
Author’s Note : Seems there are plenty more readings/levels to come.
The “Tokyo Big-One” or not?
This is the other discussion going on in some sectors locally.
The general consensus at this point in time is “probably not” as this quake was centered much further North, but I would like to hear some professional seismologists’ opinions as well as there are plenty of other fault lines in and around Tokyo on which another one could occur.
The red arrows below indicate where all the activity has been on this occasion.
Aftershocks and Seismic Data
Seems this time I will be able to say that despite the fact the number of aftershocks is not in any real decline, the average severity does seem to have fallen somewhat. Caution is still required however as evidenced by two 6.5 magnitude quakes that caused additional tsunami warnings on Monday morning.
Total number of aftershocks that I could obtain data on from the Japanese Meteorological Agency website is now 643, with other sources claiming as high as 850 and 1100+. The difference in numbers can all be attributed to how many of the smaller shocks are recorded by some or not at all by others.
Business Perspective
- North-East Area – Economic Impact
Share of Japan GDP which the worst hit areas account for is being estimated to be around 6.0%, not all of which will be lost due to the quake and tsunami’s, however situation in regard to b) below is worsening. - Factory Closings
Number of closings due to inability to secure key production parts/components is increasing. This is leading many to consider relocating production elsewhere for the time being at least. This is due to the Just-in-time inventory system which keeps inventories of production components at low levels and will affect Japan’s GDP for the March and June quarters at least. - Economic Recession Likelihood
For the current QTR, this is considered almost a certainty but only at marginally negative growth levels, for the next QTR it is also considered quite likely with the magnitude dependent on how quickly the problems associated with the JIT system in b) above can be remedied. Subsequently the growth positive effects of rebuilding should gradually become more evident and serve as a base for subsequent rebounds in GDP. - Financial Markets
Article from Bloomberg this week detailing Central Bank Governor’s reluctance to purchase Gov’t Bonds due to his concern about the effect it would have on the JPY and inflation, i.e. he is acting in stark contrast to his US counterparts:
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa is under fire for refusing to consider 1930s-style purchases of government bonds to fund reconstruction from the nation’s record earthquake. Shirakawa repeatedly attempted to quash direct buying of government debt, a step allowed in extraordinary circumstances with the permission of the Diet, in appearances before lawmakers this week. The policy would undermine confidence in the yen and provoke a surge in consumer prices, he said at parliamentary fiscal and finance committee hearings.
Big discussion going on in the business community about the number of foreign expats who simply dropped everything and fled the country. Discussion has focused on what their responsibilities are to their colleagues or employees and whether or not they should be fleeing just when Japan and the Japanese are going through one of it’s darkest hours.
Full range of opinions being expressed on this topic, refer the following 4 examples:
- "If I had left as the president, my role as a leader would have been diminished," said Gerry Dorizas, the president of Volkswagen AG's operations in Japan, who has been in that role four years. "We've been very transparent."
VW Japan has moved all staff, including 12 expats and 130 Japanese staff and their families, to Toyohashi in Aichi prefecture.
One foreign investment banker in Tokyo says he wasn't surprised that so many employees left. "We don't hire people into the financial industry to risk their lives - this is investment banking and we hire investment-banker types," he said. "We are trying to avoid ostracism for those who come back - there is no upside in that - but there is good-natured hazing."
To be sure, most foreign senior-level managers leading teams in Tokyo stayed in the capital or relocated their entire offices to other locations in Japan, according to several managers interviewed Tuesday.
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