A New Perspective - Japan Earthquake Update March 18, 2011

The following is part of a series of email updates about the effects of the earthquake in Japan. The emails originated from a colleague in Tokyo and provide an insiders perspective. These posting have been unedited and tell the story from one person's vantage point.

March 18. 2011
Below is a follow-up report from Wednesday afternoon, hope this helps put things in perspective.

Background : We have 2 staff dedicated to the related news in the office here all day long, one is in charge of monitoring all the Japanese television stations, the other in charge of what is coming over the internet in Japanese, we are not monitoring any reports in any other languages.

Tokyo Infrastructure

• Food is gradually reappearing on the shelves in convenience stores and supermarkets, fresh fruit and vegetables still in short supply. This is supported by the very large numbers of delivery vans and transport company trucks evident on the roads over the past few days. Getting several reports that infant formula’s and diapers have been in very short supply and was one main reason why so many Japanese (i.e. the ones with very young children) decided to fly overseas earlier in the week.
• Gasoline tankers however have not been seen in encouraging numbers and gasoline rationing continues.
• Drinking water supplies quite ample, though 1.5 litre PET type packs of drinking water are still in very short supply (smaller bottles are in ample supply however)
• Running water is still not available in some areas in and around Tokyo Disneyland (reclaimed land areas suffered from liquefaction and subsequently subsidence) and some areas N & NE of Tokyo.
• Rolling black-outs commenced in Tokyo yesterday and are slated to continue today (maybe even longer which is a concern) Schedules of affected areas are available on the internet, seems the non-internet literate elderly are unable to find the information.
• Am hearing sporadic reports of internet and e-mail problems from yesterday. This is a first, they have been very reliable to date.

Other Comments

• Reports circulating overseas yesterday that the Power Company and Government had “given up” all efforts to contain the reactor problems and fled the reactor site were promptly proved groundless and totally false early yesterday morning.
• Japanese news reports late last night had the power company, despite the snow and freezing cold and having to bulldoze a new path to the reactor etc., only 600 meters short of being able to restore power to the back up generators, which if successful, would enable them to contain the reactors in the “normal” prescribed manner for these things.
• This morning they have large fire trucks and the self-defense force helicopters still in action delivering water to where it is needed. The rational conclusion therefore is more like “No-one is even considering ‘giving-up’ yet, but they still have a long way to go, so vigilance by all is still required” (Can anyone really imagine the Japanese Army would simply just give up?)
• The overall situation here today has not deteriorated at all, in fact may have improved somewhat.
• I continue to have grave reservations about the quality and accuracy of most news reports I am reading in English, one international English television network is most conspicuous in this regard.
• The remainder of this report (below these comments) therefore is mostly focused on factual data and generally reliable forecasts.
• A humanitarian tragedy is gradually unfolding in the worst hit areas, simply because most people, are as yet, unable to leave for Southern areas and are literally sitting around in “the freezing cold” waiting for help.

Tectonic Instability & Aftershocks
Only a couple of biggish aftershocks in Tokyo this morning and only a couple more last night, frequency continues falling gradually day by day (some of these would have been considered reasonably good sized earthquakes by themselves until last Friday of course)

Aftershock maps reveal aftershock activity is confined to the area where the “Pacific Plate” is being pushed beneath the “North American Plate”, which runs from around due east of Tokyo straight up the NE coast. Refer diagram below.

RE AFTERSHOCKS
Total number of aftershocks is being reported by various sources as anywhere between 800 and 1,000 to date+

Refer 2 diagrams below for :

a) Aftershock Location/Intensity map for the 11th & 12th March
b) Time/Intensity map of aftershocks over the first 2 days, Locations are listed on the RHS, Fukushima is second from the bottom:

(These are in Japanese but should be relatively understandable in any case.)

Weather in the worst affected areas

The weather can only be described as “freezing cold”, refer temperature map below at 0500 local time, every location in the worst affected area is below zero.

Weather Forecasts

Weather forecast for today 18th March in Fukushima (inclusive of wind direction) is as follows:

Weather forecast for the Tokyo area is as follows: