Situation Still Bad - Japan Earthquake Update April 4, 2011

The following is part of a series of email updates about the effects of the earthquake in Japan. The emails originated from a colleague in Tokyo and provide an insiders perspective. These posting have been unedited and tell the story from one person's vantage point

April 4, 2011

North East Report
The status of the NE area remains bad across the board, still not enough food, fuel, clothing etc. reaching the right places.

Toll of dead (11,578) and missing (16,451) continues to climb every day and is now is excess of 30,000, with in excess of 150,000 still in temporary shelters in the worst affected regions.

A massive search operation to locate larger numbers of the missing commenced on Saturday 2nd April in tandem with the commencement of Spring tides that makes it easier to spot bodies when the tide ebbs. The 30kn exclusion zone around the problem reactor side is not included in search operations for the time being.

Much of the focus still on the nuclear reactor in Fukushima, refer “Nuclear Situation” below.

Tsunami Height
May have been much higher than originally thought:

Researchers: 30-meter tsunami in Ofunato
The latest research on the March 11 tsunami that slammed into Ofunato city in Iwate Prefecture, northern Japan shows that it was nearly 30 meters high.
A joint research team from Yokohama National University and University of Tokyo surveying the Ofunato city shoreline made the discovery.
They found fishing equipment scattered on the high cliff of the city's Ryori Bay and have determined the tsunami reached as high as 29.6 meters.
The research group says the great height of the tsunami was formed by the shape of the narrow bay. They will continue to survey traces of the tsunami to clarify the scale the tsunami.

Tokyo Report
In regard to getting back to normal, Tokyo continues to make quite good progress overall.

Major fiscal Year-End on Thursday 31st March appears to have passed without any lingering earthquake problems.

Food supplies are gradually returning to normal levels, currently estimated to be around 85% of “normal levels”, but there are still blank spaces on many store shelves for items still out of stock which are not being replenished or diverted North-east.

Business is also getting back to pre-quake “normal levels” with the exception of factory production in some areas, refer business perspective below.

Blackouts - Continue
Areas subject to blackouts have been divided into 5 regions each comprising approx. 4 sub-regions. Blackout schedule is posted on Tepco’s (power company) website in Japanese. These blackouts are also being cancelled on a fairly frequent basis as one and all make efforts to conserve electricity and thereby render them redundant.

These rolling blackouts interfere with factory production of a whole range of goods however, and cannot be considered positive for the economy, refer also “Business Perspective” below.

The area in which I live (near Tokyo Disneyland) was recognized as an “officially damaged area” 2 weeks ago, and is therefore exempted from any further blackouts, and has had a lot of repair work (roads, water-pipes, gas mains etc.) completed since that time. Residents of some areas still queuing up for daily supplies of drinking water however.

Drinking Water
The situation in regard to bottled drinking water supplies is no longer in panic mode, however the larger PET bottles of bottled mineral water are still reserved exclusively for families with young children. Smaller bottles of mineral water are still around and available to all however.

Radioactivity readings at all fresh water treatment plants in the Tokyo area have fallen back well below levels considered safe for infants less than 1 year old as anticipated earlier, this is due to the very short half-life of the isotope in question – 8 days.

Nuclear Situation
Power now connected to all reactors, attempts underway to restart back-up systems, and efforts continue to plug the current cause of most concern, the radiation leak into the ocean.

Overall progress is being made, but it is still frustratingly slow progress, therefore still far from resolved and vigilance is still required.

The big unknown surrounding the nuclear situation is what radioactive isotopes are being leaked/emitted and how dangerous they are respectively. Readings taken by the IAEA late last week raised concerns yet again due to the fact they detected Cesium 137 in some of their readings in a small village not far from the reactor where approx. 100 people are still in residence.

The following is from MIT’s “Nuclear Information Hub” website:

Yield 6.80% 6.30% 6.30% 6.10% 6.10% 5.80% 2.80% 2.30% 1.10% 0.70% 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%

Fission Product cesium-133/134* iodine-135 / xenon-135 zirconium-93 cesium-137 molybdenum-99 / technetium-99** strontium-90 iodine-131 promethium-147 samarium-149 iodine-129 samarium-151 ruthenium-106 krypton-85 palladium-107

Half-life 2 years 7 hours 1.5 million years 30 years 200,000 years 30 years 8 days 3 years not radioactive 15 million years 90 years 1 year 11 years 7 million years

Building Nuclear Reactors in an Earthquake prone country
Japan has many Nuclear Power plants, so why hasn’t this happened before? Is the question on the minds of many.

Apparently this is not the first reactor to be damaged by an earthquake (and Tsunami in this case) in Japan, back in 2007 (when there was a big earthquake in Niigata) there was some damage to a plant on the other side of the country, refer “Kashiwaki Kariwa” location in the below diagram:

The “Tokyo Big-One” or not?
This is the other discussion going on in some sectors locally.

The general consensus at this point in time is “probably not” as this quake was centered much further North, and all aftershocks have been almost exclusively along the “Pacific Plate / Nth American Plate” boundary, also in the above diagram.

Some are expressing the concern this quake may have placed extra pressure on other fault lines closer to Tokyo, however others have countered this cannot be assumed with any degree of certainty yet.

Aftershocks and Seismic Data
Seems that I will be able to say once again that despite the fact the number of aftershocks is not in any real decline, the average severity does seem to have fallen somewhat. Caution is still required however as there have been 119 in total since my last report 6 days ago.

Business Perspective

• North-East Area – Economic Impact
  Share of Japan GDP which the worst hit areas account for is being estimated to be around 6.0%, not all of which will be lost due to the quake and tsunami’s, however situation in regard to b) below is worsening.
• Factory Closings
  Number of closings due to inability to secure key production parts/components is increasing. This is leading many to consider relocating production elsewhere for the time being at least.
  This is due to the Just-in-time inventory system which keeps inventories of production components at low levels and will affect Japan’s GDP for the March and June quarters at least.
  Despite several forecasts for only minor negative impact on GDP, this factor also warrants vigilance, as it could easily have a much larger impact if the “production recovery” assumptions in some of these forecasts prove too rosy.
• Economic Recession Likelihood is unchanged
  For the current QTR, this is considered almost a certainty but only at marginally negative growth levels, for the next QTR it is also considered quite likely with the magnitude dependent on how quickly the problems associated with the JIT system in b) above can be remedied.
  Subsequently the growth positive effects of rebuilding should gradually become more evident and serve as a base for subsequent rebounds in GDP.
• Financial Markets
  Saw a program guest on CNBC over the weekend describe the (initial) foreign press coverage of the whole incident (Quake, Tsunami and Nuclear problem) as “an inverted pyramid of piffle” which I do agree with in relation to the initial coverage, i.e. the first 2 weeks or so, however there is growing evidence that the more recent coverage has been more in line with reality and the local coverage.
• March 31 Fiscal Year End
  Has passed without any major lingering problems, and should be considered another sign that all is gradually getting back to normal.
  A colleague and I drover to an area approx. 100km North of Tokyo (i.e. approx 140km from the Fukushima plant) to assist with some Year-End activities on Thursday evening, there was no sign of anything abnormal happening, apart from some businesses closing earlier to conserve electricity.

Stay or Flee? – The “Flygin” Discussion
This discussion degenerated into a spiteful affair between 4 or 5 individuals, so I doubt we are going to get any constructive conclusions from it at all.

However, for the record, here some personal recommendations from yours truly:

In the event anyone finds themselves caught up in an event of such magnitude:

• Make arrangements to get your family out of any affected area immediately
  By this, I do not mean just get them out of the worst affected Tsunami areas, I mean get them out of anywhere that “business as usual” cannot be conducted from the next day (inclusive of many parts of Tokyo in this instance) to a safer location in-country, or overseas
  
  This is because we all should anticipate some severe infrastructure damage to occur with an event this size and therefore it is probably not wise to keep your families close-by “for the sake of being close-by”, i.e. in this regard the nuclear power plant situation in Fukushima is nothing more then additional infrastructure damage.
• Attend to your work related responsibilities, if you have them.
  By this I do not mean contact all your staff and merely ask if they are okay, give them the same opportunity to get their families out of the affected areas as well.
• Anticipate a food and water buying panic to occur immediately by people who are not well prepared for such an event (and even by some that are)
  By this I mean don’t let such responses catch you by surprise and therefore plan ahead (refer next point)
• Prepare in advance, i.e. as much as you can in any case
  By this, I do not mean have a few extra bottles of mineral water stored in the kitchen, I mean conduct a full risk analysis of what you will need to survive a few weeks without basic services and utilities. If you are not willing to do this, you are gambling with the lives of your families in the first place, also if you think conducting a risk analysis is a burden/nuisance of some sort, it is probably better if you do not venture into “such countries” in the second place as historical statistics dictate such events are going to occur at some stage.
  
  The term “such countries” is not limited to just Japan, but would prominently include such countries (and locations) as Chile, New Zealand, Indonesia, Alaska, California and The Philippines etc. i.e. this list is not an exhaustive list, just the main locations around the Pacific Rim, the point is that the list is a bit longer than you would initially surmise.

Tokyo Slowly Improving - Japan Earthquake Update March 29, 2011

The following is part of a series of email updates about the effects of the earthquake in Japan. The emails originated from a colleague in Tokyo and provide an insiders perspective. These posting have been unedited and tell the story from one person's vantage point

March 29, 2011
North East Report
The status of the NE area remains bad across the board, still not enough food, fuel, clothing etc. reaching the right places. Toll of dead and missing continues to climb every day and is now is excess of 28,000, with in excess of 150,000 still in temporary shelters in the worst affected regions. The only positive here is that the number of people in shelters has dropped from over 200,000 late last week. Much of the focus still on the nuclear reactor in Fukushima, refer “Nuclear Situation” below.

Tokyo Report
In regard to getting back to normal, Tokyo is still making quite good progress overall.
Food supplies are gradually returning to normal, but there are still blank spaces on many store shelves for items still out of stock which are not being replenished, I can only assume such items are from the NE area. Gasoline rationing is no longer a problem as anticipated earlier.

Blackouts
Main remaining problem is now “rolling blackouts” in some outer Tokyo areas and surrounding areas, these are required as the power company claims it can only supply 70% of regular demand. Areas subject to blackouts have been divided into 5 regions each comprising approx. 4 sub-regions. Blackout schedule is posted on Tepco’s (power company) website in Japanese.

These rolling blackouts interfere with factory production of a whole range of goods, and cannot be considered positive for the economy, refer also “Business Perspective” below. The area in which I live (near Tokyo Disneyland) was recognized as an “officially damaged area” late last week, and is therefore exempted from any further blackouts.

Drinking Water
The situation in regard to bottled drinking water supplies is still in panic mode, but at a lower level than it was last Friday. The larger PET bottles of bottled mineral water are still reserved exclusively for families with young children. Smaller bottles of mineral water are still around and available to all however.

Radioactivity readings at all fresh water treatment plants in the Tokyo area have fallen back well below levels considered safe for infants less than 1 year old as anticipated earlier, this is due to the very short half-life of the isotope in question – 8 days. Most families with young children are still accepting bottled water supplies in any case.

Note
In this case, the drop in readings was thankfully predictable due to being able to ascertain the half-life of the Iodine Isotope in question. It would be encouraging to see more readings on other isotope levels, refer “nuclear situation” report below.

Nuclear Situation
Power now connected to all reactors, attempts are underway to restart back-up systems, cooling systems etc. Progress is being made, but it is still slow progress, therefore still far from resolved and vigilance is still required. Another minor panic earlier this week when much higher levels of radioactive isotopes were detected in the sea just off the reactor location, and in the water which has accumulated on reactor floors.

The big unknown surrounding the nuclear situation is what radioactive isotopes are being leaked/emitted and how dangerous they are respectively. The following is from MIT’s “Nuclear Information Hub” website:

Fission products remain inside the fuel under normal circumstances. When fuel resides in the core, it contains an amount of fission products proportional to the total energy it generated. When the fuel is depleted, it is moved to spent fuel pools and ultimately to dry cask storage, long-term repositories, or reprocessing facilities. At the Fukushima nuclear power plants, fuel inside the core (and possibly the spent fuel pools) is suspected to have likely been damaged. Because of this, some fission products, especially the gaseous products, have likely been released. We do not currently have enough information to know exactly which (or in what amount) fission products have been released. Not all fission products are harmful. Although a few are gaseous, which enables them to travel long distances through the atmosphere, most are not highly mobile and will thus remain localized near the reactor site. Although nearly all fission products emit radiation, only some are potentially harmful to humans. The chart below lists various important fission products along with their yields – the frequency at which they are produced from fission. For example, 6.3% of fission events (on average) will produce xenon-135 (after the highly unstable fission products rapidly decay). The half-life is a general time scale for how long the listed radioactive fission product will exist before decaying to a more stable fission product. Note that cesium and iodine, which were detected near the Fukushima site, are by far the most frequently occurring radioactive fission product elements.

Yield 6.80% 6.30% 6.30% 6.10% 6.10% 5.80% 2.80% 2.30% 1.10% 0.70% 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%

Fission Product cesium-133/134* iodine-135 / xenon-135 zirconium-93 cesium-137 molybdenum-99 / technetium-99** strontium-90 iodine-131 promethium-147 samarium-149 iodine-129 samarium-151 ruthenium-106 krypton-85 palladium-107

Half-life 2 years 7 hours 1.5 million years 30 years 200,000 years 30 years 8 days 3 years not radioactive 15 million years 90 years 1 year 11 years 7 million years

*Cs-133 is stable but has a high fission yield, but it will then produce Cs-134 from absorbing neutrons in the reactor and Cs-134 is radioactive with a ~2 year half-life. **Half-life reported in the table is for Tc-99. Mo-99 has a half-life of ~66 hours, which then decays to Tc-99m (metastable form of Tc-99) with a half-life of ~6 hours. The Tc-99m then decays to the Tc-99 with the 200,000 year half-life reported in the table.

Note that longer half-lives do not necessarily mean more danger. Some fission products have extremely long half-lives but emit very little radiation at any given time, so they are not dangerous. Other fission products emit huge amounts of radiation but exist for such a short period of time that they are not dangerous. How harmful a given fission product is to humans is a complicated function of half-life, radiation intensity, and various human biology factors.

Link to the website for those interested is here : http://mitnse.com/2011/03/

Link to an explanation of units of radioactivity measurement : http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/explained-radioactivity-0328.html

Author’s Notes

• It was the seventh isotope “iodione-131” that was involved in the fresh water panic last week.
• Clearly the level of danger is not merely linked to the half-life of each isotope, as it also matters a great deal how rapidly one receives a dose of radiation etc., however being aware of respective half-lives will assist in predicting how long a certain problem may be expected to linger.
• Local English language newspaper (The Japan Times) this morning details concerns about the effect of longer-life cesium-137 (30 year half life) on seafood, but correctly notes concerns about Iodine 131 will only be very short-term in nature.

Plutonium News – NHK 29th March 2011

Plutonium found in Fukushima plant soil Tokyo Electric Power Company says plutonium has been found in soil samples from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. It says the radioactive substance appears to be related to the ongoing nuclear accident, but the level detected is the same as that found in other parts of Japan and does not pose a threat to human health. TEPCO collected samples from 5 locations around the power plant over 2 days from March 21st and found 2 samples contaminated with plutonium. Plutonium is a byproduct of the nuclear power generation process. At the number 3 reactor of the Fukushima plant, plutonium is an ingredient in mixed oxide, or MOX, fuel. Radioactivity from plutonium can be shielded by a sheet of paper. But it can remain in lungs and other organs to cause long-term damages including cancer. The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says the detected level is the same as that found in the environment and not health-threatening for workers who conducted the sampling, nor residents in surrounding areas. The agency said it is awaiting the results of another survey by the Science Ministry outside of a 20-kilometer radius from the plant, as well as a further survey by TEPCO in the plant compound. Tuesday, March 29, 2011 02:20 +0900 (JST)

Author’s Note : Seems there are plenty more readings/levels to come.

The “Tokyo Big-One” or not?
This is the other discussion going on in some sectors locally.

The general consensus at this point in time is “probably not” as this quake was centered much further North, but I would like to hear some professional seismologists’ opinions as well as there are plenty of other fault lines in and around Tokyo on which another one could occur.

The red arrows below indicate where all the activity has been on this occasion.

Aftershocks and Seismic Data
Seems this time I will be able to say that despite the fact the number of aftershocks is not in any real decline, the average severity does seem to have fallen somewhat. Caution is still required however as evidenced by two 6.5 magnitude quakes that caused additional tsunami warnings on Monday morning.

Total number of aftershocks that I could obtain data on from the Japanese Meteorological Agency website is now 643, with other sources claiming as high as 850 and 1100+. The difference in numbers can all be attributed to how many of the smaller shocks are recorded by some or not at all by others.

Business Perspective

• North-East Area – Economic Impact
  Share of Japan GDP which the worst hit areas account for is being estimated to be around 6.0%, not all of which will be lost due to the quake and tsunami’s, however situation in regard to b) below is worsening.
• Factory Closings
  Number of closings due to inability to secure key production parts/components is increasing. This is leading many to consider relocating production elsewhere for the time being at least. This is due to the Just-in-time inventory system which keeps inventories of production components at low levels and will affect Japan’s GDP for the March and June quarters at least.
• Economic Recession Likelihood
  For the current QTR, this is considered almost a certainty but only at marginally negative growth levels, for the next QTR it is also considered quite likely with the magnitude dependent on how quickly the problems associated with the JIT system in b) above can be remedied. Subsequently the growth positive effects of rebuilding should gradually become more evident and serve as a base for subsequent rebounds in GDP.
• Financial Markets
  Article from Bloomberg this week detailing Central Bank Governor’s reluctance to purchase Gov’t Bonds due to his concern about the effect it would have on the JPY and inflation, i.e. he is acting in stark contrast to his US counterparts:
  Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa is under fire for refusing to consider 1930s-style purchases of government bonds to fund reconstruction from the nation’s record earthquake. Shirakawa repeatedly attempted to quash direct buying of government debt, a step allowed in extraordinary circumstances with the permission of the Diet, in appearances before lawmakers this week. The policy would undermine confidence in the yen and provoke a surge in consumer prices, he said at parliamentary fiscal and finance committee hearings.

Stay or Flee? – The “Flygin” Discussion
Big discussion going on in the business community about the number of foreign expats who simply dropped everything and fled the country. Discussion has focused on what their responsibilities are to their colleagues or employees and whether or not they should be fleeing just when Japan and the Japanese are going through one of it’s darkest hours.

Full range of opinions being expressed on this topic, refer the following 4 examples:

"If I had left as the president, my role as a leader would have been diminished," said Gerry Dorizas, the president of Volkswagen AG's operations in Japan, who has been in that role four years. "We've been very transparent." VW Japan has moved all staff, including 12 expats and 130 Japanese staff and their families, to Toyohashi in Aichi prefecture. One foreign investment banker in Tokyo says he wasn't surprised that so many employees left. "We don't hire people into the financial industry to risk their lives - this is investment banking and we hire investment-banker types," he said. "We are trying to avoid ostracism for those who come back - there is no upside in that - but there is good-natured hazing." To be sure, most foreign senior-level managers leading teams in Tokyo stayed in the capital or relocated their entire offices to other locations in Japan, according to several managers interviewed Tuesday.

A Human Crises Emerges - Japan Earthquake Update March 25, 2011

The following is part of a series of email updates about the effects of the earthquake in Japan. The emails originated from a colleague in Tokyo and provide an insiders perspective. These posting have been unedited and tell the story from one person's vantage point.

March 25, 2011
North East Report
The status of the NE area remains bad across the board, still not enough food, fuel, clothing etc. reaching the right places. Toll of dead and missing continues to climb every day and is now is excess of 25,000.

Earthquake relief supply locations in the worst affected areas are as follows:

Attn: Earthquake Relief Supplies Miyagi Prefectural Office 3-8-1, Honcho Aoba-ku, Sendai city, Miyagi 980-8570, JAPAN	Attn: Earthquake Relief Supplies Iwate Prefectural Office 10-1 Uchimaru Morioka city, Iwate 020-8570, JAPAN
Attn: Earthquake Relief Supplies Aomori Prefectural Office 1-1-1 Nagashima, Aomori city, Aomori, 030-8570, JAPAN	Attn: Earthquake Relief Supplies Fukushima Prefectural Office 2-16 Sugitsuma-cho, Fukushima City 960-8670, JAPAN

Tokyo Report
In regard to getting back to normal, Tokyo is making quite good progress overall.

Main remaining problem is now rolling blackouts in Tokyo and surrounding areas, gasoline rationing has pretty much disappeared over the past 5 days as anticipated

Drinking Water
The situation in regard to bottled drinking water supplies however, has reverted to that of a full blown panic from 2 days ago. Apparently, small amounts of a radioactive Iodine isotope were detected in one fresh water treatment plant in Tokyo on Wednesday. Subsequently the government advised it was at a level that was in excess of that recommended for infants (less than 1 year old). They then advised that it was best not to let infants drink the water for the time being and that it should not be used when making milk from infant powdered milk formulas.

This has set off a full blown panic amongst all families with children under 3 years old, the larger PET bottles of bottled mineral water have now been reserved exclusively for families with young children. Smaller bottles of mineral water are still around and available to all however.

The location at which the slightly elevated levels of isotope were detected, reported that test levels promptly fell back under the recommended level the following day. But the panic had started and all other locations started testing their water treatment plants as well, with several reporting slightly elevated levels.

Sure enough though, the very next day, the details in the government warning advise that high levels of concern are not warranted as infants would have to drink the water for between 6 & 12 months straight before there was any danger to their health, this fact was promptly ignored by 99.9% of all mothers and families affected.

Personal Perspective
In my humble opinion, regular tap water from these treatment plants in Tokyo, and surrounding areas, has not been drinkable for the past 20 years in the first place. This is primarily due to the very liberal amounts of chemicals (chlorine etc.) they use to purify it with. It is hard to believe that anyone has been letting infants actually drink the water directly at all, let alone mix it with baby formula.

So this is once again a classic case of paranoia triggered by very minor problems that may be (and they don’t know this for sure) associated with the nuclear problem. The other point related more directly to the radioactive element in question, is that this isotope has a half-life of only about 8 days, so this problem should quickly disappear in the next week or so. I will update this point next week.

Nuclear Situation
Power now connected to all reactors, attempts underway to restart back-up systems, cooling systems etc. Progress is being made, but it is still slow progress, therefore still far from resolved and vigilance is still required. Another minor panic ensued earlier this week when smoke started billowing again from one of the damaged reactors.

Aftershocks and Seismic Data
Seems I spoke a bit too soon in my update on Tuesday earlier this week when I said the frequency and severity of aftershocks was abating somewhat. Almost as soon as I hit the SEND button, a series of quakes around 6.0 in strength commenced and continued for several hours into that night! Total number of aftershocks that I could obtain data on from the Japanese Meteorological Agency website is now 553, with other sources claiming as high as 760 and 1000+. The difference in numbers can all be attributed to how many of the smaller shocks are recorded by some or not at all by others.

Comparative Data
This has been very hard to come by as quakes this large are quite rare, but the most recent two of similar (bit larger and bit smaller magnitude respectively) were the December 2004 quake in Indonesia at 9.1, and the Chilean quake of 8.8 in Feb 2010.

Indonesian Quake Dec 2004 of 9.1 magnitude
In the week after the 9.1 Indonesia quake in 2004 that caused a killer tsunami, there were 84 aftershocks with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.0.
Estimated length of rupture was approx. 1600 miles

Chilean Quake 27 Feb 2010 of 8.8 magnitude
In the week after the 8.8 Chilean quake in Feb 2010 that also caused a killer tsunami, there were 21 aftershocks with magnitudes ranging from 6.0 to 7.0.

In the 2 months after the 27 February 2010 Chile Quake, i.e. as of 23 April 2010, a total of 305 aftershocks with magnitude equal or larger than M5.0 had occurred, and 21 of these aftershocks had a magnitude of at least M6.0 or greater.

Japan Quake
In the week after the 9.0 Japan quake in 2011 that also caused a killer tsunami, aftershocks were as follows:

• Magnitudes ranging 7.0 or higher - 4
• Magnitudes ranging 6.0 to 6.9 - 40
• Magnitudes ranging 5.0 to 5.9 - 106
• Magnitudes ranging 4.0 to 4.9 - 125

Estimated length of rupture is approx. 300 to 400 miles

Sub-Total in Japan for 5.0 or greater quakes is therefore 150 (i.e. 1.78 times as many as Indonesia)

Sub-Total in Japan for 6.0 or greater quakes is therefore 44 (i.e. 2.09 times as many as Chile)

To date, in the 2 weeks to date after the 9.0 Japan quake in March 2011 aftershock totals are as follows:

• Magnitudes ranging 7.0 or higher - 4
• Magnitudes ranging 6.0 to 6.9 - 50
• Magnitudes ranging 5.0 to 5.9 – 132
• Magnitudes ranging 4.0 to 4.9 - 174

Conclusion : Plenty more aftershocks to come yet

Business Perspective

North-East Area – Economic Impact
Share of Japan GDP which the worst hit areas account for is being estimated to be around 6.0%, not all of which will be lost due to the quake and tsunami’s, however there will be an immediate negative effect without any doubt, prior to a more medium-term positive effect as the rebuilding commences the Kobe quake has already provided a good example of this “negative then positive” economic effect.

Just-In-Time (JIT) Inventory System
This system is simply NOT compatible with the disruptions caused by such big earthquakes, many factories simply no longer have sufficient stocks of key parts to continue operations, many big manufacturers (automobiles, electronics, high-tech industries in general etc.) are badly affected in this regard, and this will affect Japan’s GDP for the Quarter Ending 31 March as well as for the Quarter ending 30 June this year.

Economic Recession Likelihood
For the current QTR, this is considered almost a certainty but only at marginally negative growth levels, for the next QTR it is also considered quite likely with the magnitude dependent on how quickly the problems associated with the JIT system in above can be remedied. Subsequently the growth positive effects of rebuilding should gradually become more evident and serve as a base for subsequent rebounds in GDP.

Financial Markets
Heard earlier this week that several non-Japanese brokers were calling for a complete trading halt on the local stock exchanges, which at first glance is understandable under such circumstances, until you dig into the issue “Stay or Flee” detailed directly below. Seems none of the Japanese brokers were requesting trading halts.

Stay or Flee?
There’s a big discussion going on in the business community about the number of foreign expats who simply dropped everything and fled the country. Discussion has focused on what their responsibilities are to their colleagues or employees and whether or not they should be fleeing just when Japan and the Japanese are going through one of it’s darkest hours.

More disturbing is that a new term has entered the local vocabulary for such people “fly-gins” an abbreviation for the term “Fly-away gaijins” (i.e. those non-Japanese that fly away at the first sign of difficulty) and is completely derogatory, worse still it seems to have been invented in Japanese quarters.

At this point in time, there are some pretty thick lines being drawn in the sand on this issue, and newspaper and internet articles all over the place are saying that “all the non-Japanese” are flying overseas etc. etc. The issues involved are numerous and cross-cultural in nature and any discussion about family or personal safety immediately gets emotionally charged as you would expect.

What one should do, or not do, will of course depend on one’s individual circumstances and family needs etc. and the debate still continues at the present time, so I will send another update on this point sometime in the near future, hopefully with some fleshed-out recommendations for anyone caught up in similar circumstances in the future.

Vonya Global to Present on Power of Social Media at IIA Chicago Breakfast May 16

Think Social Media is just for keeping up with friends? Think again. While it is true you can stay updated on long lost friends and former colleagues, there are many practical business uses for Social Media which will add value and efficiency to your daily routines. By attending this session you will gain a basic understanding of the various social media platforms as well as some of the more useful supporting applications.

As an added bonus - part of this session will be a hands-on tutorial so if you have access to a computer with WiFi, you will want to bring it along.

The objectives of the session include:

• Gain an understanding of the various social media platforms
• Gain an understanding of the purpose of each social media platform
• Gain an understanding of the various applications to make social media user friendly
• Learn how to use the various social media platforms for business gain

Please visit the IIA Chicago Chapter Website for more information and to register.

A New Perspective - Japan Earthquake Update March 18, 2011

The following is part of a series of email updates about the effects of the earthquake in Japan. The emails originated from a colleague in Tokyo and provide an insiders perspective. These posting have been unedited and tell the story from one person's vantage point.

March 18. 2011
Below is a follow-up report from Wednesday afternoon, hope this helps put things in perspective.

Background : We have 2 staff dedicated to the related news in the office here all day long, one is in charge of monitoring all the Japanese television stations, the other in charge of what is coming over the internet in Japanese, we are not monitoring any reports in any other languages.

Tokyo Infrastructure

• Food is gradually reappearing on the shelves in convenience stores and supermarkets, fresh fruit and vegetables still in short supply. This is supported by the very large numbers of delivery vans and transport company trucks evident on the roads over the past few days. Getting several reports that infant formula’s and diapers have been in very short supply and was one main reason why so many Japanese (i.e. the ones with very young children) decided to fly overseas earlier in the week.
• Gasoline tankers however have not been seen in encouraging numbers and gasoline rationing continues.
• Drinking water supplies quite ample, though 1.5 litre PET type packs of drinking water are still in very short supply (smaller bottles are in ample supply however)
• Running water is still not available in some areas in and around Tokyo Disneyland (reclaimed land areas suffered from liquefaction and subsequently subsidence) and some areas N & NE of Tokyo.
• Rolling black-outs commenced in Tokyo yesterday and are slated to continue today (maybe even longer which is a concern) Schedules of affected areas are available on the internet, seems the non-internet literate elderly are unable to find the information.
• Am hearing sporadic reports of internet and e-mail problems from yesterday. This is a first, they have been very reliable to date.

Other Comments

• Reports circulating overseas yesterday that the Power Company and Government had “given up” all efforts to contain the reactor problems and fled the reactor site were promptly proved groundless and totally false early yesterday morning.
• Japanese news reports late last night had the power company, despite the snow and freezing cold and having to bulldoze a new path to the reactor etc., only 600 meters short of being able to restore power to the back up generators, which if successful, would enable them to contain the reactors in the “normal” prescribed manner for these things.
• This morning they have large fire trucks and the self-defense force helicopters still in action delivering water to where it is needed. The rational conclusion therefore is more like “No-one is even considering ‘giving-up’ yet, but they still have a long way to go, so vigilance by all is still required” (Can anyone really imagine the Japanese Army would simply just give up?)
• The overall situation here today has not deteriorated at all, in fact may have improved somewhat.
• I continue to have grave reservations about the quality and accuracy of most news reports I am reading in English, one international English television network is most conspicuous in this regard.
• The remainder of this report (below these comments) therefore is mostly focused on factual data and generally reliable forecasts.
• A humanitarian tragedy is gradually unfolding in the worst hit areas, simply because most people, are as yet, unable to leave for Southern areas and are literally sitting around in “the freezing cold” waiting for help.

Tectonic Instability & Aftershocks
Only a couple of biggish aftershocks in Tokyo this morning and only a couple more last night, frequency continues falling gradually day by day (some of these would have been considered reasonably good sized earthquakes by themselves until last Friday of course)

Aftershock maps reveal aftershock activity is confined to the area where the “Pacific Plate” is being pushed beneath the “North American Plate”, which runs from around due east of Tokyo straight up the NE coast. Refer diagram below.

RE AFTERSHOCKS
Total number of aftershocks is being reported by various sources as anywhere between 800 and 1,000 to date+

Refer 2 diagrams below for :

a) Aftershock Location/Intensity map for the 11th & 12th March
b) Time/Intensity map of aftershocks over the first 2 days, Locations are listed on the RHS, Fukushima is second from the bottom:

(These are in Japanese but should be relatively understandable in any case.)

Weather in the worst affected areas

The weather can only be described as “freezing cold”, refer temperature map below at 0500 local time, every location in the worst affected area is below zero.

Weather Forecasts

Weather forecast for today 18th March in Fukushima (inclusive of wind direction) is as follows:

Weather forecast for the Tokyo area is as follows:

Initial Response - Japan Earthquake Update March 13, 2011

The following is the first in a series of email updates about the effects of the earthquake in Japan. The emails originated from a colleague in Tokyo and provide an insiders perspective. These posting have been unedited and tell the story from one person's vantage point.

March 13, 2011
I am pleased to advise that everyone eventually reported in as being fine late Friday night, but we remain a long way from “business as usual” here on Tuesday morning. Damage in Tokyo is nothing like that up north of course, but is still extensive and we are being told to expect “Brown-Outs” again during the day due to power shortages.

A few Earthquake Notes
Work & Office

• Office was shaken quite violently for about 3 full minutes, and even though the office was a complete mess afterwards (files, papers, binders strewn all over the place, cabinets falling over etc.), damage was fortunately limited to some minor furniture damage only. No structural damage evident to the office building.
• Shaking continued unabated for around 2 full hours after the main shock, inclusive of many quite severe aftershocks every 10 minutes or so and at a less frequent rate and intensity all through the weekend to this morning. Intensity of main quake revised upwards to 9.0 on the Richter scale on Sunday evening. Intensity map of the main earthquake is appended below.
• No trains (a big problem in Tokyo), no mobile phones & all freeways closed on Friday evening, phone services restored over the weekend, some trains still not running on Tuesday morning due to power shortages. Brown-outs expected during the day.
• All locals were extraordinarily well behaved despite the hardships endured. Food, fuel and other shortages feared in the Tokyo area for the next week or so. Supermarket and convenience stores were heavily depleted over the weekend.
• Most of the damage up North was caused by very large tsunami’s, there have been none in Tokyo Bay of any significance.
• E-mail services were maintained throughout the entire period, and instantly became our main form of communication; quite an unexpected yet impressive result all things considered.

Around Home
Liquefaction damage around home however (we live on reclaimed land near Tokyo Disneyland) is extensive, roads cracked and split, water and gas mains broken and uplifted all over the place, some concrete damage around the front gate and car parking area only. No gas, no running water, or other services, electricity grid still functioning fortunately, the cold weather (and rain later today) does not help.

The situation at the nuclear facility in Fukushima prefecture is still very unclear, so we are also watching that very closely as you would expect even though we are located almost 300 km from the facility in question.

The other big question relates to whether or not this is the “Big One” that Tokyo has been 20 years or so overdue, in view of the location most are concluding not.

Will report again later in the week, hopefully under more normal circumstances by then,

An Insider's Update on the Aftermath of the Japan Earthquake

Vonya Global will be posting a series of emails from our colleague in Tokyo, Japan. He has been providing us with regular updates from an insider's perspective. Updates include everything from economic, infrastructure, health and safety, aftershocks, and news validity. The emails have been very interesting and useful. We will be posting them here with his permission.

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