March 25, 2011
North East Report
The status of the NE area remains bad across the board, still not enough food, fuel, clothing etc. reaching the right places. Toll of dead and missing continues to climb every day and is now is excess of 25,000.
Earthquake relief supply locations in the worst affected areas are as follows:
Attn: Earthquake Relief Supplies Miyagi Prefectural Office 3-8-1, Honcho Aoba-ku, Sendai city, Miyagi 980-8570, JAPAN |
Attn: Earthquake Relief Supplies Iwate Prefectural Office 10-1 Uchimaru Morioka city, Iwate 020-8570, JAPAN |
| Attn: Earthquake Relief Supplies Aomori Prefectural Office 1-1-1 Nagashima, Aomori city, Aomori, 030-8570, JAPAN | Attn: Earthquake Relief Supplies Fukushima Prefectural Office 2-16 Sugitsuma-cho, Fukushima City 960-8670, JAPAN |
In regard to getting back to normal, Tokyo is making quite good progress overall.
Main remaining problem is now rolling blackouts in Tokyo and surrounding areas, gasoline rationing has pretty much disappeared over the past 5 days as anticipated
Drinking Water
The situation in regard to bottled drinking water supplies however, has reverted to that of a full blown panic from 2 days ago. Apparently, small amounts of a radioactive Iodine isotope were detected in one fresh water treatment plant in Tokyo on Wednesday. Subsequently the government advised it was at a level that was in excess of that recommended for infants (less than 1 year old). They then advised that it was best not to let infants drink the water for the time being and that it should not be used when making milk from infant powdered milk formulas.
This has set off a full blown panic amongst all families with children under 3 years old, the larger PET bottles of bottled mineral water have now been reserved exclusively for families with young children. Smaller bottles of mineral water are still around and available to all however.
The location at which the slightly elevated levels of isotope were detected, reported that test levels promptly fell back under the recommended level the following day. But the panic had started and all other locations started testing their water treatment plants as well, with several reporting slightly elevated levels.
Sure enough though, the very next day, the details in the government warning advise that high levels of concern are not warranted as infants would have to drink the water for between 6 & 12 months straight before there was any danger to their health, this fact was promptly ignored by 99.9% of all mothers and families affected.
Personal Perspective
In my humble opinion, regular tap water from these treatment plants in Tokyo, and surrounding areas, has not been drinkable for the past 20 years in the first place. This is primarily due to the very liberal amounts of chemicals (chlorine etc.) they use to purify it with. It is hard to believe that anyone has been letting infants actually drink the water directly at all, let alone mix it with baby formula.
So this is once again a classic case of paranoia triggered by very minor problems that may be (and they don’t know this for sure) associated with the nuclear problem. The other point related more directly to the radioactive element in question, is that this isotope has a half-life of only about 8 days, so this problem should quickly disappear in the next week or so. I will update this point next week.
Nuclear Situation
Power now connected to all reactors, attempts underway to restart back-up systems, cooling systems etc. Progress is being made, but it is still slow progress, therefore still far from resolved and vigilance is still required. Another minor panic ensued earlier this week when smoke started billowing again from one of the damaged reactors.
Aftershocks and Seismic Data
Seems I spoke a bit too soon in my update on Tuesday earlier this week when I said the frequency and severity of aftershocks was abating somewhat. Almost as soon as I hit the SEND button, a series of quakes around 6.0 in strength commenced and continued for several hours into that night! Total number of aftershocks that I could obtain data on from the Japanese Meteorological Agency website is now 553, with other sources claiming as high as 760 and 1000+. The difference in numbers can all be attributed to how many of the smaller shocks are recorded by some or not at all by others.
Comparative Data
This has been very hard to come by as quakes this large are quite rare, but the most recent two of similar (bit larger and bit smaller magnitude respectively) were the December 2004 quake in Indonesia at 9.1, and the Chilean quake of 8.8 in Feb 2010.
Indonesian Quake Dec 2004 of 9.1 magnitude
In the week after the 9.1 Indonesia quake in 2004 that caused a killer tsunami, there were 84 aftershocks with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.0.
Estimated length of rupture was approx. 1600 miles
Chilean Quake 27 Feb 2010 of 8.8 magnitude
In the week after the 8.8 Chilean quake in Feb 2010 that also caused a killer tsunami, there were 21 aftershocks with magnitudes ranging from 6.0 to 7.0.
In the 2 months after the 27 February 2010 Chile Quake, i.e. as of 23 April 2010, a total of 305 aftershocks with magnitude equal or larger than M5.0 had occurred, and 21 of these aftershocks had a magnitude of at least M6.0 or greater.
Japan Quake
In the week after the 9.0 Japan quake in 2011 that also caused a killer tsunami, aftershocks were as follows:
- Magnitudes ranging 7.0 or higher - 4
- Magnitudes ranging 6.0 to 6.9 - 40
- Magnitudes ranging 5.0 to 5.9 - 106
- Magnitudes ranging 4.0 to 4.9 - 125
Estimated length of rupture is approx. 300 to 400 miles
Sub-Total in Japan for 5.0 or greater quakes is therefore 150 (i.e. 1.78 times as many as Indonesia)
Sub-Total in Japan for 6.0 or greater quakes is therefore 44 (i.e. 2.09 times as many as Chile)
To date, in the 2 weeks to date after the 9.0 Japan quake in March 2011 aftershock totals are as follows:
- Magnitudes ranging 7.0 or higher - 4
- Magnitudes ranging 6.0 to 6.9 - 50
- Magnitudes ranging 5.0 to 5.9 – 132
- Magnitudes ranging 4.0 to 4.9 - 174
Conclusion : Plenty more aftershocks to come yet
Business Perspective
North-East Area – Economic Impact
Share of Japan GDP which the worst hit areas account for is being estimated to be around 6.0%, not all of which will be lost due to the quake and tsunami’s, however there will be an immediate negative effect without any doubt, prior to a more medium-term positive effect as the rebuilding commences the Kobe quake has already provided a good example of this “negative then positive” economic effect.
Just-In-Time (JIT) Inventory System
This system is simply NOT compatible with the disruptions caused by such big earthquakes, many factories simply no longer have sufficient stocks of key parts to continue operations, many big manufacturers (automobiles, electronics, high-tech industries in general etc.) are badly affected in this regard, and this will affect Japan’s GDP for the Quarter Ending 31 March as well as for the Quarter ending 30 June this year.
Economic Recession Likelihood
For the current QTR, this is considered almost a certainty but only at marginally negative growth levels, for the next QTR it is also considered quite likely with the magnitude dependent on how quickly the problems associated with the JIT system in above can be remedied. Subsequently the growth positive effects of rebuilding should gradually become more evident and serve as a base for subsequent rebounds in GDP.
Financial Markets
Heard earlier this week that several non-Japanese brokers were calling for a complete trading halt on the local stock exchanges, which at first glance is understandable under such circumstances, until you dig into the issue “Stay or Flee” detailed directly below. Seems none of the Japanese brokers were requesting trading halts.
Stay or Flee?
There’s a big discussion going on in the business community about the number of foreign expats who simply dropped everything and fled the country. Discussion has focused on what their responsibilities are to their colleagues or employees and whether or not they should be fleeing just when Japan and the Japanese are going through one of it’s darkest hours.
More disturbing is that a new term has entered the local vocabulary for such people “fly-gins” an abbreviation for the term “Fly-away gaijins” (i.e. those non-Japanese that fly away at the first sign of difficulty) and is completely derogatory, worse still it seems to have been invented in Japanese quarters.
At this point in time, there are some pretty thick lines being drawn in the sand on this issue, and newspaper and internet articles all over the place are saying that “all the non-Japanese” are flying overseas etc. etc. The issues involved are numerous and cross-cultural in nature and any discussion about family or personal safety immediately gets emotionally charged as you would expect.
What one should do, or not do, will of course depend on one’s individual circumstances and family needs etc. and the debate still continues at the present time, so I will send another update on this point sometime in the near future, hopefully with some fleshed-out recommendations for anyone caught up in similar circumstances in the future.
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