April 25, 2011
Total aftershocks over the past 2 weeks are as follows:
Lunchtime 11th April to 18th April – 246
Lunchtime 18th April to 25th April – 121
Cherry blossom-viewing season in the Tokyo area is over and is now moving up North through the worst affected regions on the way to its inevitable conclusion in Hokkaido in mid-May.
North East Report
The status of the NE area has shown some improvement over the past week, but still has a long way to go in the worst hit areas.
- Toll of dead and missing still hovering around the 28,000 level, seems in excess of 90% of victims were indeed victims of the Tsunami (i.e. drowning) and not the Earthquake itself.
- The number of SDF & US military personnel searching in earnest all over the worst affected areas (including some within the 20km restricted zone) is being ramped up from 12,000 to 20,000+
- Prices of used cars are reportedly increasing rapidly, estimates are that about 10% of all vehicles in the region were destroyed.
- Food and fuel logistics to the worst regions continues to improve, but still hearing of isolated hamlets and villages where relief is only just arriving over the past 2 weeks.
- Cherry blossom-viewing season has now commenced in the worst affected regions signaling the imminent, and no doubt most welcome, arrival of warmer weather.
- A veritable string of foreign dignitaries have been visiting the worst affected areas, handing out all sorts of things, some useful, some not. Can’t see why they cannot organize a shipment of 30 to 40 front-end loaders and 20 or 30 bulldozers which would be pretty useful right about now.
- Plenty of focus still on the nuclear reactor in Fukushima, refer “Nuclear Situation” below.
Tokyo Report
In regard to getting back to normal, Tokyo has now arrived at the stage where it can be considered “business as usual”, except for any business that would normally be conducted with suppliers/clients up North of course.
Food supplies are almost back to normal, with almost no empty spaces on store shelves than last week. Supplies of bottled mineral water (2.0 liter PET bottles) are available once again, but supplies still rather limited.
Main remaining problem for the non-tsunami areas is achieving regular factory production, refer business perspective below.
Blackouts - Discontinued
These blackouts have been discontinued for the time being, but may have to be reinstated over the hottest summer months.
Situation
I see no reason to change the wording of the summary I wrote 2 weeks ago which is as follows:
- “Progress with closing down the remaining 3 reactors continues at a snails pace as one problem after another arises to slow efforts”.
Government has now introduced a “legally binding 20km exclusion zone” around the reactor and a few additional selected areas, and all remaining residents are being asked to evacuate, seems they are not being forcibly evacuated just yet.
An article came out last week claiming that most nuclear reactor sites (worldwide) are uninsured simply due to the very high cost of doing so.
Another article came out detailing how the Power Company had decided to make compensation payments to the victims of JPY 1,000,000 (approx. USD 12,500 at current rates) per family. Anyone who knows anything about Japan will know this is woefully inadequate, and the power company promptly found themselves in very hot water once again.
Aftershocks and Seismic Data
Caution is still required as there have been 367 in total since my last report 14 days ago including several very big ones, as per the data below.
Lunchtime 11th April to 18th April – 246
Lunchtime 18th April to 25th April – 121
Looks like a “normal week” is going to be around 90-120 for the time being.
Another story from the seismological community came out last week which claimed all recent seismological protection activities have been focused on the South-Western Japan (where the Philippine and Eurasian plate intersect), as it was considered the next “high-risk area”. Not surprisingly, the article claimed the assessment approach was flawed and should be abandoned.
Another article emerged during the week in regard to “Earthquake Sickness”, details are as follows:
- Phantom quakes and Japan's 'earthquake sickness' Aftershocks are fraying the nerves of survivors in Japan. And some people feel them even when the ground is perfectly still As if the grief of loved ones lost isn't enough, Japanese survivors are now suffering from "earthquake sickness," with symptoms like dizziness and anxiety. The residents of northeastern Japan live with constant reminders of the powerful March earthquake that sent a deadly tsunami crashing into their shores. Aftershocks occur almost daily. And many survivors sometimes feel the ground shaking even when it is not. Doctors say the sensation is just one of the symptoms of the "earthquake sickness" that many survivors now have to contend with, on top of everything else. Here, a brief guide:
- What is "earthquake sickness"?
The term refers to a collection of sensations earthquake survivors sometimes experience, even long after the ground stops trembling. The main symptom is dizziness, which doctors in Japan have seen a lot of lately. The condition is "similar to motion sickness," says Dr. Hideaki Sakata of the Mejiro University Clinic, as quoted by AFP. But for people worried the next deadly temblor could hit at any time, another symptom — the phantom quake — can be the most stressful.
What is a phantom quake?
It's when someone is convinced the Earth is rumbling under his feet although, in reality, it is perfectly still. "Sometimes I'm sitting with my friends and I tense up and say, 'Do you feel that?'" says Wakana Oyamada, an office worker in Shibuya, as quoted by The Irish Times, "and they haven't because it was in my imagination." Dr. Sakata says the sensation is similar to the lingering feeling of swaying people sometimes experience when they first get off a boat.
Are there any other symptoms?
Yes, anxiety. Understandably, earthquake survivors commonly worry that another Big One could happen at any moment. That concern has been impossible to ignore in northeastern Japan. The area devastated by the quake and tsunami on March 11 had been rattled by more than 400 aftershocks of magnitude 5.0 or greater, with more than 65 of magnitude 6.0 or higher, and at least five of magnitude 7.0. Every one of them had the potential to push a few more people past the breaking point.
Has this hit the Japanese harder than earthquake survivors elsewhere?
Quite possibly. In Japan, every time an aftershock is strong enough to rattle the walls, people wonder whether it will send another tsunami crashing into the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant, releasing a new burst of radiation. "People are getting too sensitive," says Dr. Kazuhiro Soeda, as quoted by The New York Times. "This is something we've never experienced before."
The “Tokyo Big-One” or not?
This is the other discussion going on in some sectors locally.
The general consensus at this point in time is “unfortunately not” as this quake was centered much further North, and all aftershocks have been almost focused mainly along the “Pacific Plate / Nth American Plate” boundary, also in the below diagram.
Business Perspective
- Economic Impact
Forecasts are gradually being revised downwards for the March and June quarters, but being revised upwards after that due to the reconstruction efforts that will commence.
Barely any reconstruction has commenced to date however.
The major economic impact will occur in the Agricultural sector, which does nor bode well for food prices this year. - Factory Closings
Number of closings now gradually starting to reverse, however the number of factories unable to resume full production has stabilized and shows no dramatic sign of improvement just yet.
Toyota has resumed production at all facilities but it cannot increase to more than 50% capacity levels.
There is no reason to conclude any other major (or not) domestic manufacturers are any better off then Toyota, even though Honda, whose facilities are mainly located much further south, is reputed to be in better condition although not completely unaffected.
A negative effect on overseas supply chains is still being reported, but the extent. Particularly to non-Japanese entities is difficult to gauge from here.
This matter still warrants further monitoring as the full effect of the disruptions may not yet be fully played out - Economic Recession Likelihood is unchanged
For the current QTR, this is unchanged and considered almost a certainty but only at marginally negative growth levels, for the next QTR it is also considered quite likely with the magnitude dependent on how quickly the problems associated with the JIT system in b) above can be remedied.
Subsequently the growth positive effects of rebuilding should gradually become more evident from around the September quarter and serve as a base for subsequent rebounds in GDP, no reconstruction efforts are underway at the present time however, cleanup activities are yet to get into full swing. - Financial Markets
Would think the Securities analyst’s are all busy revising forecasts and valuations (downwards) for all local public companies.
Funding of reconstruction efforts – Discussion now underway to increase the Consumption Tax rate and use the initial increase in receipts to fund reconstruction, nothing decide yet however.
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